USDA-NASS released their January 2026 cattle inventory estimates on the afternoon of January 30^th. Total cattle and calves were estimated at 86.16 million head, which was about 0.4% lower than January of 2025. This was largely expected as the 2025 cowherd was smaller and on-feed inventory ran below year-ago levels all last year. While this large, aggregated number does provide some perspective on the overall inventory picture, I want to focus on some other key estimates within the report.

From my perspective, the biggest surprise from the January report was the beef cow inventory estimate. USDA estimated the size of the US beef cow herd at 27.6 million head, which was a full percent smaller than last year. I expected a slight increase in the number of beef cows due to the very low culling rate last year. Despite beef cow slaughter being down more than 500 thousand head in 2025, inventory still came in lower and remains at its lowest level since 1961. US beef cow inventory is charted from 1940 to present in Figure 1. 

Figure 1: January 1 US Beef Cow Inventory (1940 to 2026) (1,000 head). Source: USDA-NASS and Livestock Marketing Information Center

The 2025 calf crop was estimated at 32.9 million head, which was down 1.6% from 2024. The decrease was not surprising given that the 2025 cowherd was smaller. The calf crop estimate includes calves born to both beef and dairy cows, but beef cows represent 74%-75% of the total cow herd. The smaller calf crop is yet another indicator of continued tight cattle supplies going forward. It is worth noting that dairy cow inventory did grow by about 2% last year, so an increase in the number of calves born to dairy cows should be expected.

The January report also provided more perspective on the rate of heifer retention across the country. This most recent report did show a year-over-year increase in heifer retention, but by a pretty modest 1%. While not a major increase, it is significant in that it represents the first January increase since 2017. As a percentage of beef cow inventory, January estimates put the beef heifer retention rate at 17.1%. While the highest rate since 2022, it still falls about 1% below the average of the last 10 years and certainly does not imply widespread expansion. It is also important to remember that heifer retention is a very fluid number. Some of those heifers being held this winter for replacement purposes will not enter the cow herd and decisions to retain others will be made throughout the year. These decisions, combined with culling rates, will drive inventory change in the new year.

Figure 2: January 1 Beef Heifers Held for Replacements as Percent of Beef Cow Inventory (1940 to 2026). Source: USDA-NASS, Livestock Marketing Information Center, and author calculations.

The size of the Kentucky beef cow herd was estimated at 862,000 head, which is down 0.8% from 2025. This puts Kentucky beef cow numbers down nearly 17% from 2018 and at the lowest level seen in the Commonwealth since the 1960’s. An increase was estimated in beef heifer retention, which at least suggests potential for stabilization of the Kentucky herd. 

The January report supports the ongoing narrative that cattle supplies will remain tight in the near term. A smaller beef cow herd in 2026 suggests another decrease in the size of the calf crop for the current year and heifer retention remains at modest levels. If the pace of heifer retention does increase this year, that will pull feeders out of the system and further tighten supply. Uncertainties remain with respect to live cattle imports from Mexico, beef trade, and if / when consumers react to high price levels. But domestic demand has been robust thus far and the supply picture remains encouraging. It should be another good year for the cow-calf sector.

The full USDA cattle inventory report can be accessed here.

Recommended Citation Format:           

Burdine, K. “Contraction of the US Beef Cattle Herd Continues.” Economics and Policy Update 26:2, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kentucky, February 27, 2026. 

Author(s) Contact Information:

Kenny Burdine | kburdine@uky.edu