USDA’s April Cattle on Feed report came in very close to expectations. Total on-feed inventory was down by just over 0.5% from 2025 at 11.58 million head. Both placements and marketings were down considerably from last year, but very close to pre-report estimates. The report was generally consistent with the ongoing trends of tight cattle supplies, lower slaughter levels, and longer feeding periods. Being a quarterly report, the steer / heifer breakdown was the most interesting element of the April 1 estimates, and I want to spend a little time talking through that.

USDA-NASS estimated that there were 4.32 million heifers on feed as of April 1, which was 60,000 (1.4%) fewer heifers than last April. For the sake of comparison, steers on feed were largely unchanged year-over-year. To start the second quarter, heifers were estimated to represent 37.3% of total on-feed inventory. This number is often viewed as a retention indicator with potential to indicate future expansion (or contraction) of the beef cow herd and has been watched very closely in the last few years.

The figure below charts heifers, as a percentage of on-feed inventory, going back to January of 2006. I purposely wanted to take that longer-run view to help put the most recent number in perspective. At 37.3%, heifers make up a slightly larger share of on-feed inventory than they did on average over the last twenty years. While this does not suggest widespread heifer retention, I do think the downward trend over the last 2-3 years is noteworthy. This is actually the smallest heifer percentage seen in quarterly cattle on feed data since 2018. That statistic is a little deceiving because we have been under 38% several times since then (most recently at 37.7% last April), but it is also hard to ignore.

The bigger story of 2026 may be less about heifer retention and more about beef cow slaughter. After culling the herd very hard from 2021 to 2023, beef cow slaughter was sharply lower in 2024 and 2025. Through the first 14 weeks of 2026, beef cow slaughter has been running almost 18% lower than the same time last year. If that trend held for the balance of the year, the 2026 beef cow culling rate would be about 7%, when the culling rate has averaged around 10% over the last twenty years. Weather conditions are likely to impact both heifer retention and cow culling as we move through current year, but the current low rate of cow slaughter may be the primary inventory driver as we move towards 2027.

Recommended Citation Format:   

Budine, K. “Quarterly Report Shows Decrease in the Number of Heifers on Feed.” Economics and Policy Update 26:4, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kentucky, April 30, 2026.  

Author(s) Contact Information:

Kenny Burdine | kburdine@uky.edu